Zimbabwe Information Center in North America
A project of the North American Coalition for a Free Zimbabwe (NACFREEZ)
MDC
By Stanford G. Mukasa
Letter from America
February 11, 2008
"Winds of change" apocalypse in US and Zimbabwean elections
A new development in Zimbabwe and the presidential election campaigns in the United States have created, at varying levels, an unprecedented public interest and enthusiasm in the electoral process and elections in both countries.
And the electoral situations in both countries appear to reflect a prophecy that was made over 40 years ago.
The United States presidential elections later this year are likely to make history.
For the first time, Americans will, at various stages this year, have to choose among Barack Obama, an African American, Hillary Clinton, a white woman and John McCain, a white man.
Never in the American history have the presidential election candidates been such a perfect rainbow, a realization of the dream civil rights leader, Martin Luther King, told when, during a march of the poor on Washington on 28 August 1963, he said he dreamed of a day that Americans will be judged by the content of their character rather than the color of their skins [or their gender.]
This year, and 45 years after the historic “I have a dream” speech, there is probably an equal chance that the next president of the United States will either be a black man, a white woman or a white man.
This diversity of candidates for the presidential elections has rejuvenated interest, energy and enthusiasm among the American voters, especially the youths, among whom the 45-year-old Obama appears to resonate very well. .
A lot more voters are turning out to cast their ballots or caucus in the primaries than ever before. The presidential debates, especially between Obama and Clinton, have generated some of highest TV ratings, especially on CNN the worldwide cable news network. Never has there been an injection of so much public excitement in presidential elections.
It is estimated that the presidential elections in November are likely to record one of, if not, the highest voter turnouts .
American post -war presidential elections have traditionally attracted the lowest voter turnout in the western industrialized world.
This legacy of a low voter turnout appears to be about to change. Obama, a charismatic Democratic candidate, has rekindled memories of former President John F. Kennedy and civil rights leader, Rev. Martin Luther King, two major icons in American post-war history.
Obama’s campaign slogan : “Change we can all believe in” appears to be an apocalyptic prediction of the famous “Winds of Change” of speech that former British Prime Minister Harold McMillan made in 1961.
Speaking before the apartheid parliament in South Africa, McMillan asked the white regime of South Africa whether they could survive the onslaught of the winds of change that were sweeping across Africa.
McMillan’s “Winds of Change” speech is today challenging the white male dominance of the American presidential electoral politics.
In preparation for the impact of the winds of change, a journalist speculated the possibility that Obama might well be the next president of the United States.
The journalist noted that Obama’s father had been a Kenyan immigrant to the United States.
The journalist asked: “How will we report the story of a US president who had a Kenyan father? What story shall we tell the Americans if Obama becomes president of the United States? “
Whether it is Hillary Clinton or Obama who eventually becomes the president of the United States America will have been transformed by the prophetic winds of change McMillan predicted back in 1961.
But the impact of the winds of change is also being felt across the Atlantic Ocean in Zimbabwe.
Zimbabweans, who were settling for another routinely rigged election under the iron- fist rule of Robert Mugabe, were in for a surprise when Simba Makoni, a member of the ruling party, announced he was challenging Mugabe in the presidential elections.
Although he faces a dim prospect for winning, Makoni has nevertheless generated a great deal of interest and may motivate thousands of apathetic voters to go to vote, but not necessarily for him.
There have been mixed reactions to Simba Makoni’s entry into the presidential elections.
A former finance minister in the Robert Mugabe regime, Makoni announced that he would run as an independent candidate.
Makoni has been in the news for several months as a possible leader of the so-called “Third Way” political formation, supposedly made up of a coalition of intellectuals, academics and moderate elements within both ZANUPF and the MDC.
Proponents of this “Third Way” political formation have argued that the stalemate between ZANUPF and the opposition movement will perpetuate the suffering of the masses in Zimbabwea. The “Third Way” was seen as more likely to bring about substantive changes, a strong solid and visionary leadership in less time.
Zimbabweans were thus given the impression that they should await the Messianic arrival of this new party that would deliver them from the evil clutches of Mugabe’s ZANUPF.
Attempts to get more details about the “Third Way” were always met with responses like “This is not the right moment to give details... More details will be released soon..”
In the meantime, while waiting for this historic arrival of the knight in shining armor, Zimbabweans were treated to all kinds of speculation and rumors that the new coalition would include bigwigs in ZANUPF and business. Former army commander, Solomon Mujuru, was often cited as one of the key supporters.
When Makoni publicly announced he was running for the position of the president as an independent the event heightened speculation that the “Third Way” coalition was about to make its debut and that soon all the rumored supporters and bigwigs would now emerge from the woodwork for all Zimbabweans to see.
But even after one week of Makoni’s announcement no one else had emerged except for Ibbo Mandaza and some retired army general.
An even more troubling development was the report that Makoni had had a meeting with Mugabe a few days before he announced he was running as a presidential candidate.
Information received from that meeting with Mugabe indicated that Makoni had complained that he had not been offered to run as a ZANUPF candidate in his hometown in Makoni.
Yet at another meeting within the ZANUPF hierarchy Makoni reportedly said that the delimitation of constituencies must favor ZANUPF.
It was also reported that Makoni later submitted his nomination papers to run as a ZANUPF member of parliament but was turned down because he had missed the deadline.
If all these reports about Makoni are true then the only reason Makoni decided to run as an independent presidential candidate was primarily because he was edged out of running as a ZANUPF MP.
Yet in his campaign speech Makoni said he was as a presidential candidate because of the failure of the ZANUPF leadership to address the problems facing the country.
The questions Zimbabweans will want to know are : At what point, or when did Makoni discover that there was no leadership in Zimbabwe to deal with rampant decay in the country? When did Makoni recognize that Zimbabwe was now a failed state?
Unless Makoni clearly explains his contradictory behavior Zimbabweans will find it very difficult to dissociate him from ZANUPF which is now viewed by the masses as the source of all evil and the humanitarian catastrophe that has befallen the country.
But even more pressing questions are: Where was Makoni when Zimbabwe’s leadership was failing to improve conditions in the country?
Where was Makoni when Mugabe was ruining the economy? When Mugabe was killing members of the opposition MDC? When Mugabe was destroying people’s homes under the so called operation Murambatsvina? When Mugabe’s police assaulted and nearly killed the MDC leaders last March?
Can Makoni really emerge at the last minute and expect Zimbabweans to vote for him when he has not been engaged in the struggle for democracy, freedom of speech, press and economic development?
What record can Makoni present to the people of Zimbabwe that proves he will, if elected, listen and act on people’s concerns? Does Makoni honestly believe that Zimbabweans will vote for anyone to be president just for paying lip service to opposition to Mugabe?
But even more seriously, what, realistically speaking, are the chances of Makoni winning the election when he has not mobilized a grassroots support base? He has so far no recognizable party outside ZANUPF. He has no apparent constituency.
Makoni’s so-called support base is made up of people who live a shadowy life in ZANUPF. They appear to be afraid to come out and address public meetings.
With Zimbabweans poised to give Mugabe and ZANUPF a punishing blow, how can Makoni stand as an independent but stay in ZANUPF, and, at the same time, expect people to vote for him?
Has Makoni got time to explain to the Zimbabweans why they should vote for him? With about six more weeks before elections there is simply not enough time to give Makoni visibility and gain the confidence of the Zimbabwean voters.
However, there is some redeeming factor in Makoni’s decision to enter the presidential race. While his chances of winning the presidential election are virtually nil Makoni could take away votes from disgruntled ZANUPF supporters. He could also win some votes from the MDC supporters.
What is significant about Makoni’s standing for the presidential election is he has sown seeds of suspicion within ZANUPF.
Mugabe is now spending even more sleepless nights. He has to check against ZANUPF candidates who may be supporters of Makoni.
Given the widespread discontent within ZANUPF, Mugabe is also aware that Makoni offers ZANUPF supporters an alternative to Mugabe, and would end up voting for him.
Mugabe’s rigging machinery now has to be reprogrammed to make sure Makoni does not steal votes from Mugabe. Given the time left before the elections this will be an impossible feat for Mugabe.
There is another possibility that Makoni may well be aware that he has no chance of winning the elections. Assuming that he is not a decoy for Mugabe as some people say, Makoni could inspire disgruntled ZANUPF officials to vote for the MDC instead of Makoni.
In this case Makoni could be the inspirational bridge for disgruntled ZANUPF supporters to cross over to the MDC.
Forty five years ago Harold McMillan talked about the winds of change sweeping across Africa and questioned the readiness of the then regimes and societies to accept a new sociopolitical dispensation.
For the United States the roadmap towards a new order has allowed for a smooth process that will give a black man, a white woman and a white man an equal chance to be the president of the country.
But for Zimbabwe the 84-year-old Mugabe appears shaken by the challenge to his position from within ZANUPF. Mugabe has dug his heels, drawn a line in the sand, and may have to be dragged kicking and screaming by the rapidly changing events.
Whatever Mugabe’s politics of repression and whatever his stubbornness and unyielding resistance, the winds of change are now being heard like a distant thunder.
Neither South African President Thabo Mbeki, nor the SADC heads of state will be able to save Mugabe.
This is a God-send opportunity for the opposition forces in Zimbabwe to mobilize and use a variety of strategies to give Mugabe the final push into the dustbin of history