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MDC
By Stanford G. Mukasa
Letter from America
September 17, 2007
The reported concessions by Robert Mugabe’s regime in the ongoing talks in Pretoria with the Movement for Democratic Change are without doubt partly a result of the increasing pressures on the dictatorial ruling party.
It will come as a pleasant surprise to many people that Mugabe is at last cracking and giving the kinds of concessions in the aftermath of his reign of terror that has left Zimbabwe in a state of progressive dilapidation. It is possible that Mugabe is waking up to, and trying to come to terms with, the reality of his barbarism and crimes against the people of Zimbabwe. Some people may even argue that Mugabe is now softening because he knows his political life, and possibly physical life at the age of 84, is coming to an end.
Conscious of the fragility of his life Mugabe must be engaging in a lot of self reflection. He may make outrageous speeches in public. But when he retires to the privacy of his bedroom there is no doubt that memories of his barbaric acts haunt him.
Those who know him closely say Mugabe has been perpetually haunted by the ghost of the people he murdered in cold blood. It is not possible to lead a normal life after massacring over 20,000 innocent civilians in Matabeleland in the 1980s, or over 400 supporters of the MDC in the past seven years.
Some reports say Mugabe sometimes wakes up at night and talks deliriously to some invisible person, especially to the late Josiah Tongogara the legendary ZANLA hero during the struggle against the Ian Smith settler-colonial regime. Mugabe is also most likely haunted by his infidelity to his late wife, Sally. While she was on her death bed Mugabe was having an affair with his secretary, Grace Marufu, who happened at the time to be another man’s wife!
There are now unconfirmed reports that Grace Marufu Mugabe has secretly signed a million dollar deal with a publishing company to reveal Mugabe mental health and behavior. Presumably the book will be published after Mugabe’s death. The income will obviously assure Grace’s continued lifestyle in her uncertain post- Mugabe future.
It should not be a surprise that Mugabe now employs a fulltime n’anga, or witchdoctor, according to those who know him closely. It is also no wonder that he donated millions of dollars to the Catholic Church. He is probably seeking ways to atone, to gain forgiveness while he is still alive in order to avoid the haunting thought of going to Hell or his soul being tormented after his death.
Mugabe has come to a painful rendezvous with his destiny. He is at crossroads in his life and as he ponders his uncertain future he has either to listen to his well paid n’anga or the Catholic Church to which he claims to belong. But Mugabe is entangled in a web of his own deceit. He launched a sting operation against Archbishop Pius Ncube and later accused the bishop of infidelity. In one his speeches Mugabe accused, with absolutely no shame, Archbishop Ncube of having an affair with another man’s wife! Could Mugabe have been thinking aloud about his own historical infidelity?
Many economists have also argued that it is impossible for anyone to stay in the leadership position while running the nation’s economy to the ground as Mugabe has done. If Zimbabwe was a company Mugabe and his ministers would long have been fired and the company closed.
Thus, the economy, dissension within his own party, the resilient opposition movement, and the hostility from the international community, especially the west, have all now left Mugabe in a quandary.
Mugabe is undoubtedly very aware that he has been a monumental failure in Zimbabwe. He knows that he has reduced the country to a state of desperation where life is an uphill struggle for majority of the people.
As he desperately clings to power for fear that if he should relinquish his position he would be arrested, tried in a court of law and spend most likely the rest of his life in jail, Mugabe is acutely aware he cannot hold his power structure together indefinitely. Everything is on the verge of collapse around him. This fear of an imminent loss of power is having a schizophrenic effect on Mugabe.
But dealing with Mugabe or trying to make a prognosis about Mugabe’s future plans is a big gamble.
In the first place Mugabe may be down but he is not out. And as long as there is some life and will power in him Mugabe appears determined to fight to the bitter end. He has a maniacal obsession with violence to maintain him in power.
Even if he wanted to step down there is a vast army of cronies who feel they have not been adequately rewarded for helping to keep him in power. They are, therefore, reported to be demanding their pound of flesh and that, until he has adequately compensated them, he cannot step down. Some are reported to have even threatened that if Mugabe steps down prematurely without adequately compensating them they will hunt him with the very obvious consequences!.
Faced with this uncertainty about this future Mugabe has been very calculating in his dealings with perceived threats. He feels more threatened by dissension within ZANUPF than by the opposition movement.
The reason is simple. If the opposition movement were to stage any protests against Mugabe he is confident he would prevail by simply unleashing the army on the demonstrators. But he cannot do this with protests from within ZANUPF because it would be suicidal.
However, the resilience of the opposition movement in the face of brutal assaults by the army and Mugabe’s thugs has forced Mugabe to the rude awakening that no amount of police brutality can ever subdue opposition to his rule in Zimbabwe. He is, therefore, left with no choice but to participate in the talks and make concessions to the MDC at the Pretoria talks.
The big question is: Do these concessions go far enough to ensure or guarantee free and fair elections in Zimbabwe? From what has been leaked about the talks so far the concessions by Mugabe are nowhere near guaranteeing free and fair elections.
For a start, there are two very important issues for which concessions must be granted and guaranteed. These issues are conspicuously missing in concessions reportedly granted so far.
The first is the voters’ roll which is in shambles. It has been manipulated to give an unfair advantage to people voting for ZANUPF. There has not been an independent audit of that voters’ roll. If it is used in its present form hundreds of thousands of ZANUPF supporters would be given the vote under very suspicious circumstances.
For example, one group of ZANUPF supporters could have their names in multiple constituencies. This means they can vote in one area and be bussed to another to vote again. Or they can be allowed to vote multiple times under different names in the same constituency. It is unlikely that Mugabe will concede to a simplified voting where people only need to present their IDs . It is also unlikely Zimbabweans outside their country will be allowed to vote.
The second is the independent monitoring of the elections and counting of the ballots. There is no way ZANUPF can be trusted to count ballots unless they do so in the presence of representatives of other parties.
Mugabe’s game plan is based on, first, the survival of ZANUPF as the ruling party in the country, and secondly, trying to regain the confidence of the international community, especially in investments and loans from the west.
Mugabe knows if he rigs the elections to ensure his electoral victory he will not regain the international confidence he so desperately needs. On the other hand, if he allows free and fair elections Mugabe knows very well he and his ZANUPF are headed for a landslide defeat and could end up being swept out of power. The split in the MDC would have a marginal impact on the electoral defeat for Mugabe. Almost every Zimbabwean is now fed up with Mugabe. Mugabe knows it. This is why he has asked the army and the youth militia thugs and the so-called war veterans to help him win the elections.
What Mugabe is likely to do to achieve his objectives is to offer concessions as he is doing now. He will then create an atmosphere where it will appear like free and fair elections are going to be held. But at the same time he will strengthen his rigging system knowing fully well that whatever concessions he made in Pretoria, he can easily backtrack on them when real elections are held. Mugabe’s piecemeal approach to giving concessions is a carefully contrived strategy to make sure his plans to stay in power indefinitely are not undermined.
The opposition movement must not accept partial concessions but demand iron clad guarantees that elections will be free and fair. Last week I mentioned six conditions for free and fair elections. Those conditions are a package and must be accepted in their entirety for free and fair elections to be guaranteed.
The message to Mugabe by the MDC should be to insist of a package of concessions on fundamental issues, and not breadcrumbs of concessions that Mugabe is offering now.
Letter from America, September 17, 2007. In today’s Letter from America Dr. Stan Mukasa discusses Robert Mugabe’s game plan in the Mbeki-brokered talks between ZANUPF and MDC. Full Story