Zimbabwe Information Center in North America
A project of the North American Coalition for a Free Zimbabwe (NACFREEZ)
MDC
By Stanford G. Mukasa
Letter from America
November 12, 2007
Pressure on Mugabe must be maintained all the time
The new United States ambassador to Zimbabwe, James D. McGee, was sworn in on November 6. The event, or non event, was completely overshadowed by the rapidly developing situation in Pakistan, signaling how Zimbabwe can be easily whisked out of the international limelight.
However, Ambassador McGee’s appointment comes at a time when the US is at crossroads in its policy on Zimbabwe. Broadly defined, the US policy has historically been two-pronged, namely, supporting the innocent victims of the Mugabe repression while, at the same time, imposing targeted sanctions against Mugabe and his top party and government officials.
In 2003, President Bush issued an executive order freezing assets held in the United States by 75 high-ranking Zimbabwe officials.
The United States also cut off all non-humanitarian foreign aid. It has been a delicate balancing act, especially with Mugabe’s propaganda, repeated with sonorous cantations, that the United States and her western allies have imposed sanctions on the entire country.
Right now Mugabe blames every single thing that has gone wrong in Zimbabwe on what he calls sanctions from the West.
Yet trade figures between the US and Zimbabwe tell a completely different story.
This year’s trade between the two countries amounted to US$ 63.8 million in exports and US$ 48.8 million in imports, leaving a balance of trade of US$ 15.1 million.
During the same period the US trade with neighboring Zambia amounted to US$ 51.9 million in exports and US$ 33.1 million in imports, leaving a balance of trade of US$ 18.8 million.
In other words, the United States had more trade with Zimbabwe than the neighboring Zambia!
In addition, the United States has extended humanitarian assistance to Zimbabwe in areas of food aid and the fight against HIV/AIDS. This year alone, the United States donated more than US$170 million in food aid to Zimbabwe.
The United States is now feeding one in five Zimbabweans.
The United States is Zimbabwe’s largest aid donor in the anti HIV/AIDS program. Non-food aid humanitarian assistance this year was US$5.1 million. In addition, the United States this year increased its aid for anti HIV/AIDS programs to US$31 million, making the United States the largest donor in the struggle against HIV/AIDS.
These statistics in the US trade with, and humanitarian assistance to, Zimbabwe expose Mugabe’s claim as a figment of his imagination that the United States has imposed sanctions against Zimbabwe.
The biggest challenge for Ambassador McGee is how he will deal with the volatile situation in Zimbabwe, precipitated by an economy that has been in the doldrums for over seven years, and an increasing repression and brutalization of Zimbabweans by Mugabe.
Speaking before the US committee on foreign relations on September 19 the then ambassador-designate McGee promised to continue efforts to push for a democratically elected government in Zimbabwe.
McGee said his goal was to support a process for peaceful, free and fair elections that would meet the international standards.
McGee also echoed concerns of the civil society and the opposition movement in Zimbabwe that there needs to be enough time and level playing field for all parties to campaign adequately before the elections.
The process towards free and fair elections has become the key strategy in dealing with the major problem in Zimbabwe, namely, bad governance.
The restoration of the rule of law, democracy, freedom of the press, basic human rights, a constitutional democracy are, and must indeed be, both fundamental outcomes and components of the process towards elections as well as in the post- Mugabe Zimbabwe.
The past six months have seen some movement towards establishing the process towards free and fair elections.
This has raised some hope among many Zimbabweans, considering that early this year Mugabe adamantly and stubbornly refused to talk to the MDC whom he described as "stooges" of the west.
Even after some pressure Mugabe still insisted, as a condition for the talks, that the MDC must show that they are not "puppets" of the west! Ultimately Mugabe and ZANUPF dropped those ridiculous conditions, and according to leaked information, it appears there has been some progress in the talks.
The US policy on Zimbabwe, as explained by Ambassador McGee, is to support the efforts towards free and fair elections. But Ambassador McGee has exactly one year to accomplish his mission before the Bush administration’s term of office ends at the end of next year.
In the past the US strategy appeared to have been to confront Mugabe. When he resisted and cried “foul” the US then looked around for an influential African president who could prevail on Mugabe.
But neither former Nigerian and Mozambican heads of state, Olusegun Obasanjo and Joaquim Chissano, nor former Tanzanian president, Ben Mkapa, or his Angolan counterpart ,Eduardo Dos Santos, were able or willing to prevail on Mugabe.
South African president, Thabo Mbeki, fared not much better than other African presidents. But now Mbeki can claim credit that he has managed to push Mugabe and the MDC to talking to each other. The US had also pushed for a regional initiative through SADC.
It can be argued that a combination of an individual president like Mbeki and a collective grouping of presidents in SADC may have turned the tide by getting Mugabe to eventually sit across the table with the MDC representatives.
The year 2008, which is around the corner, promises to be a decisive year in the Zimbabwean crisis. If Mugabe truly allows free and fair elections then he, in all probability, is headed for a landslide defeat. And he knows it. He also knows the consequences of his defeat.
Many people have erroneously capitalized on the internal conflicts within the MDC by arguing that Zimbabweans will most likely prefer to keep Mugabe in power rather than a divided opposition.
Yet there is another dynamic that people fail to see. Zimbabweans have been reduced to a destitute living. They have also seen a massive erosion of their economic status, dignity and well being. Life in Zimbabwe has regressed by 50 years.
The geopolitical landscape resembles a war zone. The socio economic infrastructure lies in a state of abject dilapidation. Inflation which stands at what many people estimate to be around 25,000 percent, has now become the national flag of Zimbabwe’s state of affairs.
In a remarkable contrast, inflation in neighboring SADC countries averaged just 10 percent last year. If Zimbabweans were to vote in free and fair elections it would be inconceivable that they would vote for Mugabe and ZANUPF! No people in their right minds could vote for their oppressors.
But has Mugabe really turned around? Is he now willing to allow free and fair elections?
The answer is NO to both questions. Mugabe is being dragged kicking and screaming. He is facing tremendous pressures.
He has his back against the wall. Mugabe will never be like Ian Smith and F.W. de Klerk who eventually agreed to free and fair elections.
Mugabe can only be pressured all the way to free and fair elections. It will be foolhardy to ease off pressures on Mugabe just because he has given some concessions in the movement towards free and fair elections.
Like a cornered rat Mugabe is constantly looking for ways to get out.
The role of the opposition movement, civil society and SADC is to maintain pressure on Mugabe. Whether they, in fact, have any power to pressure Mugabe remains to be seen.
Mugabe may be aware that none of the internal formations in the opposition movement has any effective power to force him to allow free and fair elections.
However, he knows that the MDC in particular has the vast majority of the Zimbabweans behind it.
This means that, faced with a deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe, the masses in the country could mount a major mass action even if no one expected it.
Another source of strength for the MDC is the international community.
If the MDC might appear to be weak and divided Mugabe is well aware that the international community will recognize the elections as free and fair only on the basis of how Mugabe treats the opposition movement. Mugabe badly needs the international community to bail him out of the mess he has created.
During the negotiations Mugabe will try hard to bully or intimidate the MDC into agreeing to less than full demands for free and fair elections. He is doing so already.
A reign of terror is spreading around the country with opposition members being arrested, beaten and one even killed.
The idea here is to intimidate MDC into signing an agreement that clearly favors Mugabe.
MDC must make it clear that its demands for a process leading to free and fair elections cannot be watered down or reduced.
The opposition movement must make it absolutely clear that it will not settle for anything less than its full demands.
The role of the international community, notably SADC, the United States and other western countries, will be to support the demands for free and fair elections.
The international community will also insist that Mugabe meets the international and regional standards for conducting free and fair elections.
Mugabe knows if the elections are seen as neither free nor fair there will not be a recognition of his regime, especially by the western countries, and no aid or investments will come.