Zimbabwe Information Center in North America
A project of the North American Coalition for a Free Zimbabwe (NACFREEZ)
By Stanford G. Mukasa
Letter from America
May 28, 2007
Part 2. The geopolitical context for mass action
MDC
There are several elements that form the ingredients for mass action. The basic of them all is the natural tendency by human beings to resist any attempts to harm them. This is a natural law of self defense. At this level, mass action can take the form of actually resisting any attempts to harm people.
The question for Zimbabweans is : Is there any inclination at all among Zimbabweans to form support groups that will respond to situations of distress ?
One of the leading human rights lawyers, Beatrice Mtetwa, talked about how she and colleagues were arrested by Mugabe’s police while they were peacefully demonstrating. They were taken to some place, forced to lie on the ground and were severely assaulted. Lawyer Mtetwa made a telling point that people passing by just stared at them as they were being beaten. There were no signs of anyone trying whatever they could to demonstrate against the police brutality. Similar cases abound in other situations were people just stared like lost sheep while police were beating human rights activists.
Another element of self defense is the organized mass action involving thousands of people marching to protest a dictatorship. Such large demonstrations are usually triggered by acts of brutality by the regime.. Back in the 1950s in the United States, a young black woman refused to give up her seat for a white passenger. She was arrested. The incident sparked a mass boycott of buses for over a year.
In Zimbabwe there have been so many acts of provocation by the Mugabe regime that any of them should have very easily led to mass action. The rigging of elections, the assault of members of the opposition movement, the declining economic conditions, unemployment which stands at over 80 percent; escalating food prices, shortages of basic commodities, the major decline in health, education and other social services should all have triggered mass action.
Similar events elsewhere in Africa, South American and Europe have led to mass demonstrations. But why not in Zimbabwe? Even where the leaders of the opposition movement have called for such mass action they have all failed to take off in a real and significant way.
When the MDC calls for rallies thousands of people attend. One of the biggest strengths of the MDC is its ability to bring people in very large numbers to meetings. This is something that ZANUPF have repeatedly failed to do - hence their forced bussing of people and school children.
Now, if the MDC has the strength to bring to a rally thousands of people why have they so far not been able to effectively mobilize the massive humanity into a concerted march on the State House? What is the missing ingredient needed to make this march by thousands a reality?
Until the March 11 incident where MDC leaders were brutally assaulted by police as they tried to participate at a prayer rally many analysts had always argued that in order for mass protests to take place in earnest the leadership must be seen out there in front leading the protests.
On March 11 this is exactly what the MDC leadership tried to do when they went to a prayer rally. They were brutally assaulted by the police. Critically wounded, they were forcibly dragged and pushed into the crowded police vehicles and driven away to jails.
All this happened in front of hundreds of people who stood watching. The world expected this to be a triggering event for mass action. It was anticipated people would turn Harare upside down in demonstrations against the arrest of their leaders. But this did not happen. Life for the ordinary Zimbabweans reverted to their routines of trying to survive the brutal regime of Mugabe.
There are no easy answers to the question of such apathy among the Zimbabweans against the background of one of the most brutal regimes in history.
One explanation for such apathy is that people are afraid of Mugabe’s militarized regime. It is argued that Mugabe’s brutal regime has demonstrated viciously how they deal with anyone daring to oppose Mugabe. People have been assaulted with iron bars and other instruments. The world has seen hundreds of pictures of wounded human rights activists. The message from Mugabe to Zimbabweans has been to show what happens to people who oppose his regime.
But this explanation, while understandably valid, is a bit simplistic in the sense that people’s historical and natural reaction to provocation is when it becomes extreme. When people have their backs against the wall and there is no way out of the oppression, people have found courage to lash out as a strategy for self defense. As long as there is a way out people will always opt for alternatives to a confrontation with a brutal regime.
But Mugabe has left Zimbabweans with no way out, except perhaps to flee the country. It is estimated that one quarter of the entire population is now living outside the country trying to eke a living. Thousands of Zimbabweans try to escape from the country every week. Some even dare cross the crocodile- infested Limpopo River where scores have been eaten alive. But even as some manage to skip into South Africa thousands are being deported back to Zimbabwe by the South African authorities.
Is this, therefore, the form of mass action Zimbabweans are taking, namely, fleeing the country? Is this the way out many Zimbabweans are preferring to a direct confrontation with the Mugabe regime? Has the entire population of Zimbabwe now been transformed into one long queue waiting for a chance to get out?
This is only a partial answer to the question why Zimbabweans are not taking mass action. For while one quarter of the Zimbabwean population are estimated to be out of the country three quarters are still in the country. This means the critical mass that is needed to start a concerted mass demonstration is still in the country.
This critical mass, notwithstanding the massive exodus, is potentially strong enough to stage an uprising against Mugabe.
This point was acknowledged in a leaked memo by none other than Mugabe’s military and intelligence chiefs. They told Mugabe that a mass protest could bring down his regime. Their memo went further to state that the people were ready and willing to stage that demonstration.
For the record, the military and intelligence chiefs were not calling on Mugabe to reform or bring back democracy. On the contrary, they were advocating for stronger preemptive measures before the people reached a boiling point and spontaneously stage mass demonstrations which would be difficult to control.
What Mugabe’s chiefs were saying , simply stated, was that if Zimbabweans got angry enough to demonstrate no amount of guns could subdue them. This is a historical fact. And the Zimbabweans are in their own way showing Mugabe through their enduring resilience that they are capable of surviving indefinitely a national unemployment rate of over 80 percent, and a situation of deteriorating socio-economic infrastructure.
All of this has precipitated a pent up rage and frustration within the masses. Zimbabwe is now a pressure cooker whose steam is like a volcano shortly before it erupts.
The question is : Given the apparent docility among Zimbabweans will the pressure cooker ever blow over?