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Letter from America
Monday, March 24, 2008
Mugabe is in a state of organic crisis
As Zimbabwe’s elections draw near Robert Mugabe’s regime is now panicking. The writing is on the wall. He knows that Zimbabweans are overwhelmingly rejecting him. Mugabe has seen with his own eyes the massive rallies organized by the MDC.
Just this past Sunday Mugabe’s rally reportedly attracted about 10,000 mostly school children.
Tsvangirai’s rally, in contrast, drew over 30,000 people. And this happened seven days before the elections!
Mugabe’s rallies have been largely a playground of school children and a circus of diehard supporters who had to be bussed from other places. A number of Mugabe’s rallies have had to be cancelled because of poor attendance. Matabeleland has taken lead in this universal rejection of Mugabe.
Some people have declared that Matabeleland is now a no -go area for Mugabe. This would have been the first time a rally for Mugabe has been cancelled because of poor attendance. The Zimbabwean dynamic is now changing fast against Mugabe.
Insiders say Mugabe has sought a reassurance from the military and police that they will do everything in their power to deliver him a victory. This probably explains the public statements by the police and military chiefs that they will not salute anyone but Mugabe. It also explains the latest directive to bring all presidential ballots to be counted in Harare by the military.
Mugabe is very much aware that his defeat at the elections will be massive. Indications are everywhere that Mugabe stands no chance in Hell that he will win the elections. Even in his so-called rural strongholds Mugabe has had a rude shock that support for him has dried up.
He is now like a caged animal running around frantically looking for a safe place. But Zimbabweans are now telling Mugabe “You can run but you cannot hide.”
Mugabe’s reputation, future and possibly life. now rely on his continuing to hold his position as president of Zimbabwe.
Mugabe is painfully aware that if he loses the election he will be in for a rough time. The pent up anger among Zimbabweans will be unleashed with the force of a hurricane on Mugabe and his cronies. It happened in Haiti when the dictator Papa Doc managed to escape, but his dreaded cronies and security men were ripped to pieces and burned alive on the streets by the enraged mobs. In Italy the dictator Mussolini was not only shot dead but his corpse was hung by a meat hook in the city center for all to see.
These are the images that make Mugabe even more determined to hold on to his position like a man who grasps at a straw before being engulfed by a flood.
The recent revelations that Mugabe has printed nine million ballots for about six million registered voters, and the fact that an incredible 90 000 postal ballots for a police force of 8,000 have been reported speaks volumes of Mugabe’s strategy to rig elections.
But Mugabe’s strategy is no longer that much of a secret. Disgruntled ZANUPF officials, members of the CIO, police and army are passing information to the opposition MDC.
This puts Mugabe dangerously in a state of siege. He is now surrounded by enemies both inside and outside his ZANUPF establishment.
The founder of the Italian Communist Party, Antonio Gramsci, once talked of an organic crisis in describing a Fascist state. This is when the state’s security is seriously threatened from within and outside, and when the contradictions within the state become too complex to manage or harmonize.
Faced with this organic crisis the state will take all steps to sustain itself.
Mugabe is in a similar crisis. He is now surrounded by hostile forces even within his own security agencies. He is in an unstable condition, is panicking, and, in such situation, Mugabe will do anything to survive and to maintain his position. Holding the position of president is no longer just a political and electoral issue, but a matter of survival for Mugabe.
Mugabe has discovered that rigging votes is no longer foolproof.
MDC president Morgan Tsvangirai revealed some of the dirty tricks Mugabe is trying to use to rig the elections. What worries Mugabe the most is he does not know how much Tsvangirai knows about all the strategies Mugabe has put together to rig elections. Worse still Mugabe does not know who is feeding Tsvangirai with all this information.
Thomas Mapfumo sings Hapana munhu anomanikidzwa kuita zvaasingade. Kana usingade kuteera mambo haumanikidzwe. Translated : Nobody should be forced to do what he or she does not want. If you do not want to follow the King you should not be forced to do so.
The song was an apocalyptic vision of the absolute rejection of Mugabe by the Zimbabweans. Even in rural areas people have displayed an incredible bravery not only by attending Tsvangirai’s rallies in thousands but by actually boycotting Mugabe’s rallies. They have done this notwithstanding all threats from Mugabe’s thugs and the violence the thugs are perpetrating against opposition supporters. Human rights organizations recorded over 300 incidents of violence perpetrated by Mugabe’s supporters since January.
As Mugabe gets more desperate he has now unleashed his thugs to intimidate, harass, and beat opposition opponents. However, attempts to use food distribution as a weapon to force Zimbabweans in rural areas to vote for Mugabe do not seem to be having any significant effect. It is reported that at one rally thousands of people thronged to listen to the leader of the MDC. Yet not far away ZANUPF officials were unsuccessfully trying to use food to coax people away from the rally. It did not work.
Zimbabweans have shown an unparalleled energy and bravery despite the appalling economic conditions in the country. On one occasion they actually booed a government minister who had sponsored a football match. The crowds also loudly cheered a man who was wearing an MDC t shirt and proudly appeared before the minister.
These are the ominous signs of an impending massive defeat that Mugabe is now desperately trying to avoid. His rigging machinery is no longer very reliable. So he is trying Plans B C D E F ad infinitum. When each plan is thwarted or proves unreliable Mugabe moves swiftly to another, and another.
Yet this is the time Mugabe will be most dangerous. He is fighting for his personal survival. He will use maximum brute force if this is what he will need to protect himself.
Mugabe’s next plan, should rigging fail, is to have the presidential ballots counted by his close military cronies in a closed room where no one else will be allowed.
What does the MDC need to do at this point?
First, it was important that Tsvangirai revealed in public all the known dirty tricks by Mugabe. This not only serves to inform the world but also to alert members of the opposition to be even more vigilant.
Also it terrifies Mugabe because his dirty secrets are being exposed. It is very difficult right now for Mugabe to justify in public why he has suddenly ordered that all the votes for the presidential election be sent to Harare for counting by a military directorate. This flies in face of previous agreements in writing that all votes will be counted at the polling stations.
MDC must organize a parallel process for verifying and announcing in public the vote count. It must, if not already, have its monitoring team at every polling station. MDC must also make every effort not to succumb to intimidation or to be chased away from the polling centers by Mugabe’s thugs as happened in the previous elections.
Admittedly this could be difficult as Mugabe has now reneged on one of the promises not to deploy the police and army at polling centers. The idea behind this act by Mugabe is as clear as day. The army and the police will actually be used to chase away from the polling centers MDC monitors so stuffed ballots can be placed at the centers.
Mugabe ‘s trump card is the so called military directorate who . will make an arbitrary that Mugabe has won. MDC must resist and fight very strongly against moving all the presidential ballots to Harare for counting.
In Today’s Letter from America Dr. Stan Mukasa argues all indications now are that Zimbabweans have now massively rejected Mugabe.
