Zimbabwe Information Center in North America
A project of the North American Coalition for a Free Zimbabwe (NACFREEZ)
By Stanford G. Mukasa
Letter from America
January 22, 2007
Keep Your Eyes on the Prize, Zimbabwe!
Like an idiot savant ZANUPF president, Robert Mugabe has very rare moments in his life when he tells the truth.
In a recent interview Mugabe reportedly said that he wanted to stay in office beyond 2008 because ZANUPF would be in shambles without him in the leadership position. He was right on the state of ZANUPF.
Mugabe has also historically said he cannot find a suitable successor. What ZANUPF can produce so far by way of a possible successor is a rag tag group of what some people call “used goods” consisting of Emerson Mnangagwa, John Nkomo, Joyce Mujuru, Simba Makoni and possibly Gideon Gono who gets even more damaged almost on a daily basis. None of them has presidential qualities that inspire any hope for a progressive leadership in the post -Mugabe era.
It was very significant that Mugabe made such a tacit admission. ZANUPF is now, to all intents and purposes, a spent force and a liability to modern-day Zimbabwe. One of the best definitions of ZANUPF was given by Eddie Cross when he called the party a form without any substance. Zimbabweans across the length and breath of the country are acutely aware that ZANUPF is now, as they sing, rotten to the core. ZANUPF is a far cry from the freedom movement that, with guns blazing, played a frontline role in the struggle for independence 30 years ago.
ZANUPF has now degenerated into a gravy train for the top government and party officials. Not all who supported ZANUPF have been invited into the gravy train. Now, it is also increasingly evident that as the gravy train runs out supplies some of party apparatchiki and demagogues like Jonathan Moyo have been, or are being unceremoniously tossed out as a living sacrifice. In the process, they are swelling the ranks of the disgruntled ZANUPF members and impoverished Zimbabweans.
For the record, Moyo has claimed he was not fired but he resigned. Yeah, right! It was probably a coincidence that he “resigned” at the time when he was increasingly being marginalized and routinely dragged over the hot coals by his own colleagues for, as someone charged, elevating his position as minister of state for information to that of an informal and de facto prime minister!! From the way Moyo now describes ZANUPF, one wonders what really motivated him to join ZANUPF and why he stayed in the party and government for so long.
Also joining the masses are thousands of Zimbabweans who are reportedly resigning from Mugabe’s army, CIO and the police.
The bottom line is that ZANUPF is disintegrating very fast – perhaps faster than anybody can imagine. Yet ZANUPF is projecting a public image of a very powerful and indomitable party that is capable of mobilizing people into compliance with any of its insatiable demands.
The reality of the ZANUPF world is that it is now what Chinese revolutionary leaders used to call a paper tiger when referring to the Western powers.
The tragedy in this situation, where Mugabe and ZANUPF are relatively and essentially weak, is that the opposition movement and civil society have yet to mobilize the masses into purposeful and meaningful acts of civil disobedience.
There are reports of a discord within the Save Zimbabwe coalition movement for the members of the opposition. And leaders of the rival factions of the MDC have issued uncoordinated messages to the people.
The leader of the breakaway faction of the MDC, Arthur Mutambara, recently accepted partial blame for the failure of the opposition movement to spearhead a strong campaign against Mugabe. Mutambara called for a new united strategy among the opposition movement as the surest way to effectively confront Mugabe.
Morgan Tsvangirayi, the leader of the bigger and more national faction of the MDC, however, focused in his press conference recently on pushing the strategy he had crafted within the Save Zimbabwe campaign.
Nevertheless, both Mutambara and Tsvangirayi’s positions were significant in that they reflected a reawakening of the opposition movement to the fact they had not made a dent in their efforts to neutralize Mugabe and ZANUPF.
There are two dimensions in the struggle against Mugabe. One is understanding and defining Mugabe and ZANUPF. At this stage the opposition movement needs to clearly understand and define Mugabe’s agenda for survival. Mugabe and ZANUPF feel like cornered animals that must use whatever means to fight for their survival. In this respect, Mugabe and ZANUPF’s strategy for survival will necessarily include rigging elections in order to stay in power.
Mugabe, in particular, has no interest or motivation to enter into a dialogue aimed at reaching an agreement on the process that will lead to free and fair elections. Mugabe will never agree to such democratic elections because he knows that will be his political death. Mugabe is fully aware that he is the most hated man in Zimbabwe today.The State House and staying in power under the protective umbrella of the army, police, CIO and militia thugs are his insurance against the ruthless retributive action Zimbabweans are impatiently waiting to inflict on him and his officials once they leave office.
The recent hanging of dictator Saddam Hussein in Iraq must have sent cold shivers down Mugabe’s spine. What Mugabe saw was not so much Hussein being hanged but Mugabe being dangled on a rope until he died. That event, more than anything else, was a chilling message to Mugabe about what lies ahead if he should relinquish power in Zimbabwe today.
While it has been suggested in some quarters that Mugabe must be part of the process towards a negotiated political resolution of the crisis in Zimbabwe it is very unlikely Mugabe will willingly do so. MDC‘s long- standing strategy is to force him to the negotiating table. Indeed some have argued that Ian Smith and F.W. de Klerk were involved in negotiations that eventually brought independence to Zimbabwe and South Africa. However, both came to the negotiating table after considerable pressure, especially, from the international community.
The problem in the Zimbabwean case is that there is not a great deal of international pressure on Mugabe. Targeted sanctions have not had a significant impact on Mugabe: except to hurt his pride that he cannot go shopping at his favorite shops in London and elsewhere.
The second dimension in the struggle against Mugabe is understanding his agenda. Mugabe has a very clear focus on where he is going and what he wants to achieve. If he cannot find a suitable successor Mugabe wants to stay in power until he dies. If he can find a suitable successor Mugabe wants to ensure that he will be protected from legal suits or other acts of vengeance against him.
The problem of finding a suitable successor to Mugabe is compounded by the fact that Mugabe is virtually looking for a political clone of himself. It is highly unlikely that whoever succeeds Mugabe will toe the line and follow sheepishly Mugabe’s commands. Any successor to Mugabe will want to develop his or her own agenda, identity and maybe even establish a significant distance away from Mugabe.
This is what keeps Mugabe schizophrenic about his successor. The leading candidates to succeed him all appear to have a mind of their own and are not likely to be his puppets. The cronies like Didymus Mutasa who hero worship Mugabe are very likely to be his puppets, but they do not have a chance in hell of succeeding Mugabe. To make matters worse, the succession struggle among various factions within ZANUPF have led some of the faction leaders to seek political accommodation with the opposition MDC.
There was a rumor that retired army commander Solomon Mujuru, aka Rex Nhongo, had had contacts with MDC president Tsvangirayi on a proposal that would see MDC endorsing Joyce Mujuru for president in exchange for Tsvangirayi becoming vice president!
Another rumor points to yet another political coalition between Mnangagwa and some undefined opposition group using Jonathan Moyo as a conduit. Since Moyo was fired for promoting Mnangagwa it can safely be assumed that there is still a working relationship between these two, especially if Mnangagwa believes Moyo can gain the confidence of some of the opposition groups to the extent of forging this accommodation. All of this, of course is based on speculation, rumors and drips and drabs of information coming from those who claim to be in the know. However, as they say, there is no smoke without fire.
The opposition movement also needs to decide whether they should unite or fight Mugabe as individual entities. A lot has been said about MDC being weak because of the split, something which Mutambara now regrets, judging by his recent speech. Unity for its sake can be harmful to any strategies to confront Mugabe. If the two factions of the MDC were to be reunited there is a real likelihood the problems that brought about the split would resurface. Right now they cannot even agree on who should and should not use the name MDC. What, then, are the chances of agreeing on anything if they should be reunited?
The MDC led by Tsvangirayi is by far numerically superior to the Mutambara camp which appears to be a small elite club with hardly any grassroots organization. Thus, a unity would bring benefits of a massive grassroots organization for the Mutambara camp – something they have so far failed to muster. Such a unity would therefore be marriage of convenience.
Mutambara may see such unity as essential for selfish reasons. Tsvangirayi is serving his supposedly last term as leader of the MDC. Mutambara stands to gain by succeeding Tsvangirayi and therefore leading the more powerful MDC.
The other option would be to form a loose coalition like what ZANU and ZAPU had as the Patriotic Front until the elections of 1980. This would give each faction a chance to pull itself by its own weight.
Next, the opposition movement needs to consolidate its resources and strategies into acts of civil disobedience. There is a whole range of such acts that can be used. But more important, as I have repeatedly stated, the opposition movement needs to get rid of the excess baggage of strategies that have not worked in the past. Participating in by-elections, council or other forms of elections under current conditions is a sheer waste of time and energy. Given Mugabe’s strategy to survive at all costs, there is no way the opposition MDC can ever hope to win elections.
MDC must also withdraw MPs from Parliament. This is yet another waste of time and energy. The only beneficiaries of Parliament are the MPs who get paid for attending. Considering the harsh economic situation in the country the MDC MPs must now sit as independents.
Finally, the fact that Mugabe intends to stay on until at least 2010 should be a rallying point for the opposition strategy for confronting Mugabe through acts of civil disobedience. If Mugabe’s extended term in office is seen as an issue in itself it could derail the anti- Mugabe project. Mugabe could agree to hold elections in 2008. Since he already has his rigging machinery in place he could easily win the elections and give himself another six years!
During the civil rights struggle in the United States African Americans had a song which became a great inspirational and motivating factor in the struggle. The song was called “Keep your eyes on the prize.” That song is appropriate to Zimbabweans. It has a very clear message that Zimbabweans must not be distracted by quests for, or offers of, superficial rewards in order to derail the civil rights movement.