Zimbabwe Information Center in North America
A project of the North American Coalition for a Free Zimbabwe (NACFREEZ)
MDC
By Stanford G. Mukasa
Letter from America
December 17, 2007
Mugabe regime faces an uphill struggle
The biggest dilemma Robert Mugabe’s regime faces right now is how to conduct next year’s elections and win while, at the same time, convincing the world that the elections were free and fair. These two factors, which Mugabe so desperately need, are as irreconcilably wide apart as the North is from the South pole.
Another set of irreconcilable factors is how to convince the angry Zimbabwean population to vote for ZANUPF when the same regime is helplessly unable to control the economic meltdown and has stripped Zimbabweans of virtually all their basic human rights and dignity.
Were it not serious, it would be laughable nonsense to expect impoverished Zimbabwean voters to vote for Mugabe and ZANUPF knowing fully well that Mugabe is the cause of all the misery Zimbabweans are experiencing.
There is even a national nostalgic reflection on the economic conditions that existed under the late Ian Smith regime. And some people are speaking openly about how better those times were..
The national anger against Mugabe has reached a new level. In fact it’s so high and so nationwide that Zimbabweans do not need to be convinced to vote against Mugabe and ZANUPF.
Zimbabweans have made the decision, a culmination of years of unmitigated suffering under the Mugabe regime, to deliver a punishing blow on Mugabe and ZANUPF at the next elections.
Next year’s elections will be Mugabe and ZANUPF’s rendezvous with destiny. If they have ever traded or mortgaged their souls to the Devil, 2008 could be the year the Devil came to claim Mugabe’s soul.
This explains Mugabe’s delaying tactics on reaching a comprehensive agreement with the MDC as well as implementing all the provisions of the agreement in time to give the opposition movement time to campaign in all areas in Zimbabwe.
The fact that Mugabe had to resort to the so-called war veterans to intimidate voters shows he no longer has any support from the vast majority of Zimbabweans.
War veterans are now an anachronism in today’s Zimbabwe. The roles of the war veterans and that of Mugabe in the liberation of Zimbabwe – both of which are the central slogan in ZANUPF campaign for popular support – have now lost credibility.
The majority of the Zimbabwe’s population are young and more concerned with their current socioeconomic environment than hero worshipping some liberation struggle of which they have little recollection, let alone, interest.
If they are to be convinced to vote for Mugabe and ZANUPF on the grounds that Mugabe liberated Zimbabweans from colonial rule, Zimbabweans need know whether ZANUPF’s definition of independence is what prevails in the country today.
ZANUPF’s explanation that the current state of rot in the economy and social conditions is a result of the so called sanctions from Britain and the United States is very unconvincing.
During the Ian Smith regime the United Nations imposed comprehensive sanctions against Rhodesia. Yet the country’s economy remained strong and resilient.
The bottom line is ZANUPF has no convincing argument to persuade anyone to vote for Mugabe and his party at the next elections. The so called million -man march was a pretense to show the world that Mugabe still commanded support. It was a futile exercise. Zimbabweans saw it as a march of dinosaurs because both the war veterans and what they stood for have been relegated to the dustbin of history.
If Mugabe is counting on the majority of Zimbabweans to vote for him his numbers of potential voters do not add up.
The population and potential voter statistics clearly do not favor ZANUPF.
The bulk of the Zimbabwean population, possibly over 50 percent, is below 30 years of age. They are all unlikely to have had any experience with colonialism or what they were liberated from by Mugabe and ZANUPF.
And they certainly have no interest in acquiring farms because most of them live in urban areas.
When farm invasions were unleashed by Mugabe seven years ago all the young Zimbabweans saw was a steady decrease in the quality of life from bad to worse.
They did not see any improvement as a result of those farm invasions. So, if the idea behind farm invasions was to make Zimbabweans feel better then Mugabe and ZANUPF are to be held responsible for the misery and pathetic poverty that resulted in those invasions.
The geopolitical distribution of voter statistics also does not favor Mugabe and ZANUPF.
Zimbabwe has a population of about 11 million.
Over four million Zimbabweans live in urban areas of Harare, Bulawayo and Mutare. Urban areas are traditional strongholds for the opposition MDC. This represents roughly about 26 percent of the population.
Another traditional stronghold for the MDC is Matabeleland. If you add the combined populations of Matabeleland North and Matabeleland South, that is about 1,355,000 to the urban populations of the entire country, the percentage goes up from 26 to about 38 percent of the country’s population.
If the Zimbabweans in Diaspora, another stronghold for the opposition movement, are added the percentage shoots up anywhere from 50 percent to 75 percent.
The number of registered voters since 2000 has averaged five million, with roughly between two million and three million of them actually casting their votes.
Assuming that there is a proportional correlation between the population figures and the number of registered voters, up to 75 percent of the Zimbabwean voters stand to potentially vote against Mugabe and ZANUPF.
This percentage is likely to go up, considering the fact that most youths of voting age live in urban areas, and urban people are likely to be more motivated to register and vote than rural people.
One out of every six registered voters in Zimbabwe lives in Harare.
Of course some voters in the opposition strongholds will vote for Mugabe and ZANUPF in as much as some voters in the so-called ZANUPF strongholds in the rural areas will vote for the opposition MDC.
But given the preponderance of the number of voters who stand to vote against ZANUPF, the urban and Matabeleland percentages of votes for Mugabe and ZANUPF are likely to be insignificant. ZANUPF has traditionally lost heavily in Matabeleland.
Some people have described Matabeleland as a political no- go area for ZANUPF. Looking at the rural areas that have traditionally been defined as strongholds for ZANUPF there will also be increased votes for the MDC because of the pathetic conditions of poverty the people live in.
To ensure his and the ZANUPF’s victory Mugabe is determined to manipulate the voters roll as well as the counting of the ballots.
This time it may not be enough to intimidate people into voting for him. People tend to overcome the fear factor when they are subjected to the extreme repression as exists in Zimbabwe today.
Matabeleland is one textbook case where the people have resisted all kinds of oppression by Mugabe. In 1983 Mugabe’s Fifth Brigade slaughtered in cold blood an estimated 20 000 innocent civilians in Matabeleland. But in the elections of 1985 the people of Matabeleland voted ZANUPF out of Matabeleland.
Today Mugabe is wreaking havoc in Matabeleland in an attempt to coerce the people to like him enough to vote for him. But today, like back in 1985, the people of Matabeleland have remained a bastion of eternal resistance against Mugabe, a lesson that the rest of the country is learning fast.
This explains why Mugabe does not want an independent evaluation of the voters roll, or the delimitation of constituencies.
Mugabe has increased the number of rural polling stations and constituencies to favor the so-called ZANUPF strongholds.
Mugabe is also adamant against Zimbabweans in Diaspora being give the right to vote.
He is also determined to have elections in March in order to give little time for the opposition MDC to campaign in rural areas in particular. Mugabe will also limit the international observers to countries that have been friendly to him.
But the MDC should not rest on its laurels. While it is by far the most popular party in the country MDC must promote the spirit of collaboration with other opposition forces.
This collaboration is vital in the struggle against Mugabe.
At its meeting last weekend MDC made two important resolutions: to pursue a united front with other opposition forces; and to engage in civil disobedience should this be necessary.
Despite political affiliations and differences, Zimbabweans must pull together to deal with Mugabe and the problems he has created.
There is now a growing imperative for a united front of all Zimbabweans to campaign and strategize for free and fair elections. The reason Mugabe has been in power for so long is due in part to lack of a coherent, coordinated and well-managed strategy to mobilize Zimbabweans worldwide.
This united front of democratic forces must also apply to Zimbabweans outside the country.
Zimbabweans in Diaspora are a tremendous economic force. They pump into the Zimbabwean economy an estimated $1 million in foreign currency EVERY SINGLE DAY. While the money benefits family and relatives, Mugabe and his repressive régime also benefit because the foreign currency ends in the state coffers.
Top ZANUPF party and government officials are the major beneficiaries. They buy foreign currency from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (or shall we call it Reserve Bank of ZANUPF) at an artificial rate amounting to thousands in Zimbabwean dollars per $US1 and resell the same foreign currency in the black market rate amounting to millions of Zimbabwean dollars per $US1.
Strange as it may seem, the Zimbabweans in Diaspora are, in this regard, unwitting accomplices in sustaining the oppressive machinery Mugabe has at his disposal.
Zimbabweans in Diaspora, therefore, need to develop a strategy where their remittances home should earn them “democratic and human rights” dividends.
If Zimbabweans can co-exist and collaborate in the struggle for democracy in Zimbabwe they will certainly create a civil society that will nurture a culture of tolerance and true democracy.
True and real democracy does not just lie in the social and political structures but also within society. For too long Zimbabweans have engaged in a culture of recriminations, insults and endless bickering. Time has come for all democratic forces to respect and recognize that holding different views is not a crime punishable by threats of damnation.
Diversity of viewpoints is the essence of democracy. If people cannot tolerate each other’s views they are not ready for true democracy, and will only perpetuate this intolerance in the post- Mugabe era.
The Second World War was won because countries that distrusted each other, notably the USA and Russia, put aside their differences and fought side by side against Hitler who had assembled the strongest war machinery in Europe.
At some point all Zimbabweans will need each other’s collaboration to defeat the Mugabe beast. If people start bickering and insulting each other now can you imagine the embarrassment when the day comes for them to work together? The very same people who used to call Tsvangirai an “intellectual midget” and other names are now sitting at the same table with him!!
Can you imagine the long faces!!