Zimbabwe Information Center in North America
A project of the North American Coalition for a Free Zimbabwe (NACFREEZ)
MDC
By Stanford G. Mukasa
Letter from America
April 2, 2007
Mugabe may have won a battle but not the war
Last week’s events in Zimbabwe will have far more reaching national and international implications in the struggle against the dictatorship of Robert Mugabe and ZANUPF.
The week started with persistent reports that a major split in ZANUPF would end in Mugabe being denied by his own party the endorsement to either extend his presidency or run in next year’s elections. Factions led by former army commander Solomon Mujuru and Emerson Mnangagwa were said to have given Mugabe an ultimatum that he must retire or face being forced to step down.
There were also other reports of a network of marathon discussions between ZANUPF factions and MDC’s president, Morgan Tsvangirayi, as well as meetings in South Africa between both ZANUPF factions , the MDC and the South African government representatives. All this added fuel to speculation that a new coalition was emerging that would push Mugabe out of office sooner or later.
The hastily arranged emergency meeting of SADC heads-of-state in Tanzania was seen as the escalation of pressure at the regional level on Mugabe not to seek re-election.
But the week ended with a ringing endorsement for Mugabe by both the SADC leaders and the ZANUPF’s central committee and politburo.
Both the SADC and ZANUPF meetings, which endorsed Mugabe, were held outside the glare of media publicity or public scrutiny. It is, therefore, very difficult to tell what verbal exchanges took place, or whether Mugabe was ever confronted at all on his sordid human rights record or not to seek re-election.
However, some insiders both at the SADC and ZANUPF meetings observed that Mugabe was potentially in for a rough time at the SADC meeting. It is reported that in Tanzania there was some discussion on Mugabe’s human rights record even though the final communiqué did not capture the extent to which this discussion took place. It was almost like SADC leaders privately slapped Mugabe on the wrist and then proceeded to defend him in public.
A small but noteworthy part of the communiqué focused on the need for Mugabe to enter into a dialogue with the MDC as a way to resolve the country’s political problems. Mugabe had previously defined the Zimbabwean problem as essentially a dispute between his regime and Britain, requiring direct negotiations with the Blair government.
The ZANUPF central committee meeting was reported by some insiders as more of a circus than anything else. Fully aware of the dissension within the party, two ZANUPF officials, Elliott Manyika and Saviour Kasukuwere, are reported to have been tasked with mobilizing and engineering a process that would ensure there was no discussion whatsoever on Mugabe’s candidacy in the next elections.
Apparently, Mugabe’s cronies had been strategically seated in the meeting. At a given signal, Manyika was to propose Mugabe as the sole candidate and, instantaneously, the party faithful were to start singing and chanting “Mugabe” very loudly enough to drown any dissension. While this singing and chanting was going on Mugabe was to acknowledge and march out to lunch.
Whether everything happened as planned, the fact of the matter is Mugabe and his cronies stole the elections within ZANUPF central committee meeting. The ZANUPF meeting had been preceded by thugs who rampantly and savagely assaulted MDC supporters and reports that Mugabe was recruiting mercenaries from Angola as well as forming a reserve army of war veterans.
Anyone opposed to Mugabe’s reelection bid was fully aware of the consequences of taking an anti Mugabe position. This brutal show of military strength was Mugabe’s message to both internal and external opposition that Mugabe was prepared to go to any lengths to secure and maintain his position. And the fact that Mugabe openly and publicly boasted about how the police had assaulted opposition supporters was a barbaric demonstration of what kind of a monster Mugabe has become.
ZANUPF dissenters were well aware of what might befall them should they try to oppose Mugabe’s nomination in the central committee meeting. They all joined the Hail to the Chief song of the stooges.
Last events weeks’ events obviously had a number of lessons for the opposition movement. These events were a testing ground for the speculations, posturing, and analyses of the roles and efficacies of different actors on the country’s political theater.
First and foremost, the dissenting factions within ZANUPF, especially the so-called Mujuru and Mnangagwa factions will have to live up to their reputations that they can unseat Mugabe if they are to be a credible force on the side of change in Zimbabwe. After inflating themselves with all kinds of boasts about their power , influence and potency, they ended up melting and evaporating at the feet of Mugabe like ice in the sun.
Whatever promises Mujuru and Mnangagwa may have made to the MDC in those numerous and Nicodemus meetings may have proved to be hot air after Friday’s debacle.
The lesson for the main MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirayi is they must review the party’s strategy. They must learn from the past on what works and what does not work. The problem is the MDC has consistently carried on strategies, like participating in the elections, that have clearly not worked, given the highly rigged electoral process.
It was a strategic error to base an entire campaign on insisting on presidential elections in March 2008 rather than 2010. The dates of the elections are meaningless without substantive electoral reform and a new constitution. Mugabe’s decision to allow for next year’s elections instead of 2010 was not difficult at all because all he needs to do now is to refine and strengthen his rigging machinery.
It was, however, gratifying to note that MDC vice president, Thokozani Khupe, spelt out in no uncertain terms that the struggle against Mugabe will continue at full speed. Khupe said these words at the height of the savage assault of MDC officials by Mugabe’s thugs. Even the victims of Mugabe’s barbarism were equally forceful, namely, nothing, short of death was going to stop them from continuing their struggle.
The next significant development was a statement by Tsvangirayi stating that the MDC will not participate in the next elections unless the environment for free and fair elections has been guaranteed. This point was echoed by NCA president, Lovemore Madhuku, who said that a new constitution and elections held under international supervision were a necessary precondition for elections.
Where does the opposition movement go from here? First they must redefine their strategies. If Mbeki begins his shuttle diplomacy as mandated by SADC, the MDC must insist on the immediate cessation of violence, an investigation and prosecution of those who engaged in violence as well as an international peacekeeping force to monitor the cessation of violence.
Secondly, the MDC must insist on a new constitution and transitional arrangements to ensure that elections are free and fair.
MDC must also be careful about the proposals or offers they may receive from the Mujuru and Mnangagwa camps. The fact that both apparently failed to carry out their promises to deny Mugabe to stand again as a presidential candidate raises important questions about their political agenda.
Both Mujuru and Mnangagwa have been, and continue to be, part of the criminal syndicate headed by Mugabe and which has wreaked havoc in the country. They will have to prove beyond any reasonable doubt that they are now genuinely committed to free and fair elections and that they will accept the election results.
Mugabe may be in a celebratory mood, patting himself that he prevailed over both SADC and his central committee.
Indeed, Mugabe may even now dream of, and fantasize, another term in office next year. What he, of course, does not realize, or does not want to know, or does not care is that he may have won a battle but not the war.
Mugabe's ruthlessness, acts of terrorism against citizens of Zimbabwe and his openly vociferous boast about how the police and his thugs tortured opposition supporters is just the fuel needed for a new wave of confrontations in which the Zimbabweans will be even more stubbornly determined to bring him down.